We calculate a team’s playoff experience by averaging the number 1 of career playoff minutes played 2 for each player on its roster, weighted by the number of minutes the player played for the team in the regular season. Indeed, it’s extremely rare for teams without at least an average amount of playoff experience to win the NBA title. This group of teams includes the Cavs, a team that our forecasts have often underrated once the playoffs began - and that won 12 of its first 13 playoff games last year after a mediocre regular season. Put more precisely, they have a tendency to win more playoff games than you’d expect from their regular-season performance.
Throughout NBA history, teams with extensive playoff experience have often found a higher “gear” in the playoffs. The new wrinkle: Our forecasts account for the amount of playoff experience on each team’s roster. So I’ll spend the bulk of time here discussing what has changed. (Our projections are bearish on the Boston Celtics.) But Cleveland and Golden State could have an even larger advantage in the postseason.Īpart from one new wrinkle, our methodology for making these projections is essentially the same as it has been for the past two seasons.
Cleveland has less competition in the East. The Warriors and Cavs project to be the best regular-season teams in their respective conferences, although the Houston Rockets and the Oklahoma City Thunder - and perhaps the San Antonio Spurs - could represent formidable rivals for the Warriors in the West. That’s according to FiveThirtyEight’s “CARM-Elo” projections, which we’ve just launched for the 2017-18 NBA season. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: The Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers are favorites to win their respective conferences and reach the NBA Finals.
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